Tropical Storm Julia forms in southern Caribbean » Yale Climate Connections

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Forming along Venezuela’s northern coast at 11 a.m. EDT on Friday, Tropical Storm Julia intensified into a hurricane with sustained winds of up to 40 mph, blowing much of Central America and It is expected to bring dangerous heavy rains to southeastern Mexico. Julia is expected to make landfall in Nicaragua on Sunday morning.

Julia’s October 7 formation date is about two weeks later than Season 10’s typical September 22 appearance.th named storm. Activity for the season is now 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes with a Cumulative Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 78% of the average for the day.of Average from 1991 to 2020 For October 7, there are 11.6 named storms, 5.6 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes. So despite Ian’s devastating rampage, the Atlantic across the Atlantic has had a slightly less active season than usual.

Julia formed in an unusual location for a tropical cyclone, right near the coast of Venezuela. When it was a tropical storm, Julia passed over her two peninsulas in Venezuela between 11pm Thursday and 8am Friday. Paraguana When Guajira, jutting north into the Caribbean Sea. Only one tropical cyclone has reached farther south than Venezuela in NOAA records. tropical storm bullet (1993) physically migrated through the interior of northern Venezuela, causing devastating floods that killed more than 200 people.

Figure 1. Tropical Storm 13 (center of circle), where it formed east of the Paraguana Peninsula, and passed within 60 nautical miles of the location of TD 13 at 11:00 PM EDT on October 6. all tropical cyclones in 2022. (Image credit: NOAA Historical Hurricane Track)

On Friday afternoon, Giulia brought severe thunderstorms to northern Venezuela and Colombia. satellite imageThere was a moderate amount of severe thunderstorms in Julia, which gradually increased the extent and organization of the area, and began to cause significant low-level spiral banding. I was getting in the way.

Julia’s forecast

A high-pressure ridge north of Julia will continue its westerly trajectory at about 15 mph through early next week, centered just off the coast of South America by Friday afternoon. Other than its proximity to land, Julia’s development conditions are favorable, with warm water near 29.5 degrees Celsius (85 degrees Fahrenheit), moderate wind shear of 10 to 15 knots, moist air (medium levels of relative humidity). 75-80%).

Figure 2. Julia’s predictions are tracked for 10 days from the Friday 7 October run of the GFS ensemble model on 6Z. The individual forecasts for the 31 ensemble members are lines colored by the wind speed in knots they forecast for Julia. Red corresponds to Category 1 hurricanes. Time (in hours) since model initialization time is gray text. (Image credit: weathernerds.org)

Models agree well on Julia’s forward speed, with the storm gradually decelerating from its current forward speed of 18 mph to about 12 mph when it made landfall in Nicaragua on Sunday morning. As Julia moves inland, the model indicates a likely turn to WNW, keeping the center above land until it dissipates. Models are dense with Julia tracking projections, making landfall very likely in Nicaragua, and the Colombian islands of San Andres and Providencia off the coast of Nicaragua are also in jeopardy.

A period of steady strengthening is expected after Julia moves off the South American coast Friday afternoon, with a more rapid burst of strengthening possible Saturday and early Sunday. Favorable conditions will be created to rush into the hurricane. This part of the Atlantic Ocean is notorious for quirky rapid escalation events. A 6Z Friday run of the top two intensity models, HMON and HWRF, shows that Julia reached Category 2 intensity with 100 mph winds when it landed in Nicaragua on Sunday morning. At 12Z on Friday, both the statistical SHIPS and DTOPS rapid hardening tools showed that there is a nearly 30% chance that Julia will approach hurricane strength by Saturday morning. (Category 2) By Sunday morning.

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for five days from the 0Z run of the European model on Friday, October 7th to Tuesday, October 11th at 8:00 PM EDT. The model predicted widespread heavy rainfall over much of Central America and southeastern Mexico, with some areas receiving more than 10 inches of rain (dark purple). (Image credit: weathermodels.com)

Heavy rain is the main threat

The main threat from Julia is 5 to 10 inches of dangerous downpours expected over much of Central America and southeastern Mexico starting Saturday, with more expected. Much of Central America, including parts of eastern Nicaragua, which receives the heaviest rainfall in Julia, has been relatively dry with 50-80% of the average rainfall over the past three months. But heavy rains coming to northwestern Honduras would not be welcome. The region is dealing with flooding as a result of heavy rains in the last week of September. 12 killed in flooding of Ulua river in Sula valley lead To evacuate 16,000 people. Saturated soils in the region lead to more flooding if rain falls from Julia as a result.The 0Z Friday run of the European model (Fig. 3) shows that Julia is 5 to 10 inches into northwestern Honduras. predicted to bring 5 days of rainfall.

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